Project Payback (CAPEX + Cash Burn)
Month 20 · Aug 28 (1.7 yrs)
Question answered: when does the business itself return all the cash it consumed?
Method: cumulative sum of CF Operations + CF Investment, month by month, excluding CF Financial activity. Payback is the first month the cumulative value turns back to zero or above.
What is recovered: peak cash deficit $820'760 = CAPEX $600'000 + ramp-up operating losses $220'760.
Equity Payback ($1'000k)
Month 25 · Jan 29 (2.1 yrs)
Question answered: when has the business earned back the investor’s money?
Method: cumulative monthly Profit (= CF Operations) compared with the initial investment in business $1'000'000 (CF Financial activity, month 1). Payback is the first month cumulative profit ≥ investment.
Note: CAPEX is not deducted here — it is funded from the investment itself.
Comparison of methods
Comparison of methods
Months after 36 continue the same model formulas: all channels at full capacity, overheads at 100%. No financing repayment schedule, tax or discounting is modeled.
| Aspect | Project Payback | Equity Payback |
|---|---|---|
| Cash flows used | CF Operations + CF Investment | Profit (CF Operations) |
| Target to recover | Peak cash deficit $820'760 | Initial investment $1'000'000 |
| CAPEX | Deducted (negative CF Investment) | Not deducted |
| Ramp-up losses | Included in deficit | Reduce cumulative profit |
| Result | Month 20 · Aug 28 (1.7 yrs) | Month 25 · Jan 29 (2.1 yrs) |
| Difference | 5 months later than project payback |
Cumulative recovery curves
Cumulative recovery curves
Project line: cumulative CF Operations + CF Investment. Equity line: cumulative profit. Payback months are where each line crosses its target.
Detailed monthly calculation
| Month | Profit (CF Ops) | CF Investment | Cum. project cash | Cum. profit | Investment remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 · Jan 27 | -$68'248 | -$180'000 | -$248'248 | -$68'248 | $1'068'248 |
| M2 · Feb 27 | -$62'704 | -$60'000 | -$370'951 | -$130'951 | $1'130'951 |
| M3 · Mar 27 | -$57'160 | -$120'000 | -$548'111 | -$188'111 | $1'188'111 |
| M4 · Apr 27 | -$57'454 | -$30'000 | -$635'566 | -$245'566 | $1'245'566 |
| M5 · May 27 | -$59'001 | $0 | -$694'567 | -$304'567 | $1'304'567 |
| M6 · Jun 27 | -$60'101 | $0 | -$754'668 | -$364'668 | $1'364'668 |
| M7 · Jul 27 | -$66'092 | $0 | -$820'760 | -$430'760 | $1'430'760 |
| M8 · Aug 27 | $18'086 | $0 | -$802'674 | -$412'674 | $1'412'674 |
| M9 · Sep 27 | $80'530 | $0 | -$722'144 | -$332'144 | $1'332'144 |
| M10 · Oct 27 | $80'530 | $0 | -$641'614 | -$251'614 | $1'251'614 |
| M11 · Nov 27 | $80'530 | -$60'000 | -$621'085 | -$171'085 | $1'171'085 |
| M12 · Dec 27 | $82'554 | -$150'000 | -$688'530 | -$88'530 | $1'088'530 |
| M13 · Jan 28 | $84'579 | $0 | -$603'951 | -$3'951 | $1'003'951 |
| M14 · Feb 28 | $86'604 | $0 | -$517'347 | $82'653 | $917'347 |
| M15 · Mar 28 | $86'604 | $0 | -$430'744 | $169'256 | $830'744 |
| M16 · Apr 28 | $86'604 | $0 | -$344'140 | $255'860 | $744'140 |
| M17 · May 28 | $86'604 | $0 | -$257'536 | $342'464 | $657'536 |
| M18 · Jun 28 | $86'604 | $0 | -$170'932 | $429'068 | $570'932 |
| M19 · Jul 28 | $86'604 | $0 | -$84'328 | $515'672 | $484'328 |
| M20 · Aug 28 — project payback | $86'604 | $0 | $2'276 | $602'276 | $397'724 |
| M21 · Sep 28 | $86'604 | $0 | $88'880 | $688'880 | $311'120 |
| M22 · Oct 28 | $86'604 | $0 | $175'484 | $775'484 | $224'516 |
| M23 · Nov 28 | $86'604 | $0 | $262'088 | $862'088 | $137'912 |
| M24 · Dec 28 | $86'604 | $0 | $348'692 | $948'692 | $51'308 |
| M25 · Jan 29 — equity payback | $86'604 | $0 | $435'295 | $1'035'295 | $0 |
| M26 · Feb 29 | $86'604 | $0 | $521'899 | $1'121'899 | $0 |
| M27 · Mar 29 | $86'604 | $0 | $608'503 | $1'208'503 | $0 |
ROI, %
ROI, %
ROI = (Σ Profit − CAPEX) ÷ Initial investment × 100 = Σ(CF Operations + CF Investment) ÷ Initial investment. Undiscounted; years 4–10 continue the model formulas at full capacity.
ROI · 3 years
138.8%
($1'987'938 profit − $600'000 CAPEX) ÷ $1'000'000
ROI · 5 years
346.6%
($4'066'432 profit − $600'000 CAPEX) ÷ $1'000'000
ROI · 10 years
866.3%
($9'262'665 profit − $600'000 CAPEX) ÷ $1'000'000
- ROI 3 years: uses months 1–36 exactly as in the P&L and Cash Flow statements.
- ROI 5 years: months 1–60; months 37–60 continue the same formulas (all channels at full capacity, overheads 100%).
- ROI 10 years: months 1–120 on the same basis. No inflation, tax, equipment replacement or discounting is applied.